Bitcoin Price Trajectory: 2025-2040 Market Outlook and Key Catalysts

#BTC

• Technical indicators suggest Bitcoin is oversold with potential for near-term recovery above $100,000 resistance
• Institutional accumulation contrasts with retail selling, creating foundation for next bull cycle
• Long-term price trajectory remains bullish driven by scarcity, adoption, and regulatory maturation

BTC Price Prediction

Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Shows Oversold Signals Amid Market Correction

Bitcoin is currently trading at $86,560, significantly below its 20-day moving average of $100,124, indicating a bearish short-term trend. The MACD reading of 6,352 with a positive histogram suggests potential momentum building despite the price decline. Bitcoin is trading near the lower Bollinger Band at $87,427, which often serves as a support level during market corrections.

According to BTCC financial analyst Emma, 'The current technical setup shows bitcoin is in an oversold territory. While the price has declined substantially from recent highs, the MACD divergence and position relative to Bollinger Bands suggest we might be approaching a potential reversal zone. However, traders should watch for a sustained break above the 20-day MA for confirmation of trend change.'

Mixed Market Sentiment as Institutional Activity Contrasts with Selling Pressure

The current news landscape presents a complex picture for Bitcoin. On the institutional side, Abu Dhabi Investment Council's tripled Bitcoin ETF exposure and the proposed US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill indicate growing institutional confidence. However, this is counterbalanced by concerning developments including long-term holder sell-offs and MicroStrategy hitting 52-week lows.

BTCC financial analyst Emma notes, 'We're seeing a classic battle between institutional accumulation and retail fear. The Abu Dhabi MOVE and proposed US legislation demonstrate that sophisticated investors are using this downturn as an accumulation opportunity, while the MSTR index risk and long-term holder selling reflect short-term market anxiety. This creates a foundation for potential recovery once the selling pressure subsides.'

Factors Influencing BTC's Price

Abu Dhabi Investment Council Triples Bitcoin ETF Exposure Ahead of Market Volatility

Abu Dhabi Investment Council (ADIC) aggressively expanded its position in BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) during Q3 2025, increasing holdings from 2.4 million shares to nearly 8 million—a stake valued at $518 million as of September 30. The sovereign wealth fund's timing proved prescient, with Bitcoin subsequently rallying to $125,000 in early October.

The move signals growing institutional acceptance of crypto as a legitimate asset class, though not without risk. BlackRock's IBIT later faced record single-day outflows of $523 million in November, testing ADIC's long-term store-of-value thesis. Market volatility underscores the delicate balance between institutional adoption and price sensitivity in digital asset markets.

US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill Introduced Amid Market Volatility

Congressman Warren Davidson's proposed legislation marks a watershed moment for cryptocurrency adoption. The bill establishes a framework for federal tax payments in Bitcoin without capital gains liability, while mandating long-term treasury holdings of collected assets. This move coincides with Bitcoin trading at $86,900, down 3% on the day.

The mechanism mirrors gold reserve strategies, positioning bitcoin as an inflation hedge. The BTC Policy Institute endorses the market-driven approach, suggesting potential for exponential growth in government holdings if adopted at scale.

Market analysts note the timing follows Bitcoin's recent price pressure, though the legislation's long-term implications may outweigh short-term volatility. 'This isn't about daily price action,' remarked one treasury strategist. 'It's about establishing monetary infrastructure for the next decade.'

JPMorgan Warns of Potential $11.6B Outflow Risk if MSCI Ejects MicroStrategy from Key Indices

JPMorgan analysts highlight a looming liquidity crisis for MicroStrategy as MSCI considers removing the Bitcoin-heavy firm from major equity indices. The January 15 decision could trigger $2.8 billion in immediate passive outflows, with an additional $8.8 billion at risk should other index providers follow suit.

Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou's team notes MicroStrategy's unique role as a Bitcoin proxy in institutional portfolios through its inclusion in the Nasdaq 100, MSCI World, and MSCI USA indices. The stock's pandemic-level valuation decline reflects market anxiety about losing this gateway function for traditional investors seeking crypto exposure.

The analysts emphasize the reputational damage and reduced equity-raising capacity that WOULD accompany index removal. MicroStrategy's recent failure to qualify for S&P 500 inclusion compounds these concerns, potentially creating a perfect storm for the company that pioneered corporate Bitcoin adoption.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Accelerate Sell-Off Amid Market Downturn

Bitcoin's price has decisively broken below the $90,000 support level as market volatility intensifies. The downward trajectory coincides with sustained selling pressure from long-term holders, a cohort typically known for diamond-handed resilience.

On-chain analytics from Swissblock reveal a concerning trend: veteran investors are liquidating significant portions of their BTC holdings. This persistent divestment suggests eroding confidence in the current market structure, creating headwinds for price recovery.

The sell-off from seasoned market participants raises fundamental questions about market conviction. When the most steadfast investors retreat, it often signals deeper structural concerns that technical rebounds cannot easily resolve.

MicroStrategy's MSTR Hits 52-Week Low Amid Bitcoin Slump

MicroStrategy's common stock (MSTR) plunged to a 52-week low of $173.55, mirroring Bitcoin's recent downturn. The shares briefly recovered to $176 but remain NEAR yearly lows, down 40% year-to-date and 62% over the past 12 months.

The company's Bitcoin acquisition strategy faces mounting pressure as BTC trades below $88,000. With an average purchase price of $74,000, most of MicroStrategy's recent Bitcoin holdings are underwater. The viability of selling MSTR to fund further BTC purchases is now in question.

MicroStrategy has previously relied on preferred share offerings to maintain its Bitcoin accumulation strategy while servicing debt and paying dividends. However, this approach may be reaching its limits as expanding obligations constrain the company's ability to execute its playbook.

U.S. Congressman Proposes Bitcoin Tax Payments in Landmark Bill

U.S. Congressman Warren Davidson has introduced the Bitcoin For America Act, legislation that would permit Americans to settle federal tax obligations using Bitcoin. The proposal outlines a direct transfer mechanism to the U.S. Treasury, with collected assets funneled into a newly created Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

The bill aims to modernize federal payment systems by accommodating digital assets while leveraging Bitcoin's fixed supply for national financial resilience. Taxpayers would avoid capital gains triggers during transfers, with valuations based on Bitcoin's fair market value at transaction time.

This legislative MOVE signals growing institutional recognition of cryptocurrency's role in mainstream finance. The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve concept mirrors traditional currency approaches while acknowledging digital assets' increasing prominence in global markets.

Ray Dalio Maintains 1% Bitcoin Allocation Despite Structural Concerns

Ray Dalio confirmed he retains approximately 1% of his portfolio in Bitcoin, a position he's held for years. The Bridgewater founder made the disclosure as BTC traded below $88,000 amid a week-long slump that pressured Leveraged longs.

During a CNBC interview, Dalio reiterated skepticism about Bitcoin's readiness as a reserve asset, citing unresolved structural issues. When questioned on its potential to rival Gold or the dollar, he dismissed the possibility, warning governments would intervene to prevent such a scenario. "If it becomes really successful, they will kill it. And they have ways of killing it," Dalio stated, echoing comments from 2021.

Yet the billionaire acknowledged evolving perspectives. Between late 2021 and early 2022—as institutional adoption accelerated—Dalio began recognizing Bitcoin's resilience. "It hasn't been hacked, it's stood the test of time," he told Lex Fridman, marking a notable shift from his earlier warnings about regulatory vulnerability.

Binance's Changpeng Zhao (CZ) suggested he influenced Dalio's moderated stance, referencing past discussions. The remarks coincide with Dalio's parallel warnings about AI bubbles, drawing attention to his cross-market risk assessments.

Bitcoin ATMs Emerge in Nairobi Malls Amid Regulatory Uncertainty

Bitcoin ATMs branded as 'Bankless Bitcoin' have appeared in prominent Nairobi shopping centers, including Two Rivers Mall and outlets along Ngong Road. The machines, positioned alongside traditional bank ATMs, facilitate cash-to-Bitcoin conversions and sales, drawing scrutiny as Kenya's VIRTUAL Assets Service Providers Act took effect on November 4, 2025.

Regulators from the Central Bank of Kenya and the Capital Markets Authority have issued a joint notice clarifying that no VASPs have been licensed under the new law. The National Treasury is still drafting detailed regulations to formalize the licensing process, leaving current operators in a legal gray area.

Grassroots cryptocurrency adoption has already gained traction in low-income areas, suggesting a broader shift toward digital asset usage in Kenya. The mall-based ATMs represent a more visible, mainstream deployment of Bitcoin infrastructure.

Bitcoin Price May Suffer in 2026, Says Economist: How True Is This?

Bitcoin's price has plunged below $90K, marking a 30% drop from its all-time high of $120K. The downturn has sparked panic among investors, with many reevaluating their positions. While some analysts view this as a temporary correction, economist Peter Schiff warns of darker days ahead.

Schiff predicts that Bitcoin could face even greater turmoil in 2026 if it breaches the critical $88K support level. His grim outlook contrasts sharply with bullish sentiments prevailing in parts of the crypto community. The Financial Times reports growing unease as market participants weigh conflicting signals about Bitcoin's future trajectory.

Samourai Wallet Co-Founders Sentenced for Facilitating $230M in Illicit Transactions

Keonne Rodriguez and William Hill, co-founders of cryptocurrency mixer Samourai Wallet, have been sentenced to five and four years in prison, respectively. The U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York charged the duo with operating an unlicensed money-transmitting business that processed over $237 million in illicit transactions.

The platform allegedly laundered funds tied to drug trafficking, cybercrime, fraud, and even child exploitation. Rodriguez, as CEO, and Hill, as CTO, actively marketed Samourai's mixing services to criminal users on darknet forums, promoting its ability to obscure transaction trails. Hill specifically endorsed Samourai's Whirlpool feature as a tool for 'cleaning' Bitcoin.

Saudi Arabia Bitcoin Mining Approach Signals Upcoming Crypto Wave

Saudi Arabia is making headlines in the cryptocurrency world with its announcement to venture into Bitcoin mining, marking a significant stride into the global digital asset industry. The move underscores the Kingdom's growing influence in blockchain and digital finance, aligning with global Bitcoin mining initiatives.

The development coincides with a $1 trillion U.S. investment pledge and a collaboration involving Nvidia and Elon Musk on a 500MW AI supercomputing project. These efforts highlight Saudi Arabia's ambition to merge advanced technologies with its financial infrastructure, moving beyond traditional norms.

Beyond mining, the nation is exploring broader crypto dominance. Early 2025 saw Saudi Arabia's indirect exposure to Bitcoin through an investment in MicroStrategy (MSTR), a prominent BTC holder. This strategic move signals the country's long-term economic vision, potentially laying the groundwork for a future Saudi Arabia Bitcoin Reserve.

The gradual shift toward digital assets and decentralized networks marks a notable pivot for the Kingdom, which had previously imposed banking restrictions on cryptocurrencies. This change in stance follows similar trends in Western and Southeastern countries.

BTC Price Predictions: 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040 Forecasts

Based on current technical indicators and market developments, here's our assessment of Bitcoin's price trajectory through 2040:

BTCC financial analyst Emma emphasizes that 'While short-term volatility persists, Bitcoin's long-term trajectory remains fundamentally strong. The current correction provides accumulation opportunities for patient investors. However, regulatory developments and macroeconomic factors will continue to create significant price fluctuations throughout this journey.'